Stanley Yacht Services: ALERT: Tropical Storm GONZALOTS Wind Probabilities & The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule

Monday, October 13, 2014

ALERT: Tropical Storm GONZALO
TS Wind Probabilities & The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule

Keep A Weather Eye On The Horizon!


Tropical Storm GONZALO | tropical storm force wind probabilities

Hurricane warnings, meaning hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours, are now in effect for:
  • British Virgin Islands
  • St. Martin
Hurricane watches, meaning hurricane conditions are possible in the next 24 hours, have been issued for:
  • St. Maartin
  • Anguilla 
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques and Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
Meanwhile, tropical storm warnings are in effect for:
  • St. Martin
  • St. Barthelemy
  • St. Maartin
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Saba and St. Eustatius
  • Anguilla
  • Nevis and St. Kitts
  • Monsterrate
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques and Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands


The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule


Chart | www.nhc.noaa.gov
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. 
Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.
With many of our fellow boaters and charter crews in the zone of concern, we urge everyone to beware and be safe! Stay tuned to local broadcasts and weather alerts for regular updates!

For smooth sailing and zero stress ... call SYS!©



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